Mind Body Balance
The Challenge For The Reserve Bank
There’s been quite a bit of comment in various sections of the media recently about the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold this month. Most of the commentary has been focused on whether we will see any more reductions to official rates, and if so, when.
However, there’s hasn’t been a lot of analysis of what is pushing the RBA to make a call one way or another, so I thought it was worth taking a brief look at this in order to keep these discussions in ming clear is that the RBA is finding it increasingly difficult to resolve a few market forces that are pulling in different directions right now. The dilemma stems from the fact that different sections of today’s economy are performing in quite different ways. So while some sectors would probably warrant some additional monetary stimulus, others are probably giving the RBA more reasons to apply the brakes rather than the accelerator!
Today’s property market is a prime example of this. With the resources sector generally slowing, the RBA is keen to see growth in industries like housing construction in order to keep the overall economy ticking over. However, the growth in median property values in Melbourne and Sydney recently has made any move to reduce interest rates a potential problem as it may help push prices upward at an unhealthy rate.
This problem is actually more complicated than that. Recent APM data shows that whilst Melbourne and Sydney achieved price growth of 5%-plus in the September quarter, most other Australian capitals experienced far more modest growth. So the interest rate equation changes depending on which State you’ve invested in and I can’t see them setting different interest rates in different States!
The one message that seems to have gained consensus among the majority of economic forecasters is that the RBA remains unlikely to raise interest rates for quite some time to come and that’s good news for property investors everywhere!
Marketing getting more competitive
As if the increasing number of investors looking to buy an investment property wasn’t making the property market competitive enough, some recent data from one of the internet property portals has confirmed what many of us have been suspecting for several months now…the first home buyers are back in the market in a big way!
Realestateview.com.au conducted a survey of over 8,000 property seekers in August to take a fresh look at the demographics the current market. This study found that first home buyers now comprise almost 30% of the total market, making them the single largest buyer segment in today’s market.
Interestingly, they also found that 47% of the current pool of first home buyers have only been looking for a property for 3 months or less, so those people who thought we would see a lull in first home activity when the State Government cut the First Home Buyer’s Grant for established homes at the end of June may need to reassess their forecasts!
Where to now for interest rates?
Now that we’ve all had a chance to absorb the fact that our record low interest rates have now gone even lower compliments of the Reserve Bank’s move this month, I thought it was worth looking ahead to see what the future may hold.
Obviously, there are quite a lot of mortgage holders who are wondering whether now is the time to consider locking in the rates on at least part of their loan, or whether there are more cuts still to come. So we took a look at what the economic gurus have been saying since the August rate cut.
Westpac’s head economist, Bill Evans, was the first to tip the current easing cycle, and has been remarkably accurate in his forecasting of the cuts to date. So I tend to pay attention when he speaks.
Mr Evans is saying that that we still have another 2 cuts to come, taking official cash rates to just 2%, including one more cut this year.
In fact, Bloomberg’s regular survey of leading economist forecasts found that 9 out of the 28 surveyed were predicting another rate cut before the end of 2013. This included Macquarie Research which is forecasting another 2 cuts in the next four months.
There are several other forecasters, of course, who feel that rates may well remain stable now for quite some time. However, perhaps the best news for longer term stability came from the ANZ’s Ivan Colhoun who is quoted as saying, “Based on the trend for these series, the pressure on Australia’s cash rates remains downward and there remains very little prospect of any rise in cash rates before 2015.”
So my best advice on fixing interest rates is this. Never forget that the Banks are paying a lot of very expensive, well qualified actuaries to work on the numbers before offering any fixed rate loans….and the Banks are not renowned for giving away money cheaply. So with the Banks offering both fixed and variable rate loans well under 5% now, I think it’s safe to assume that the Banks clearly think rates won’t be going up for quite some time to come.
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